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[We will remain patient and focused and work for a sustained overall improvement in economic performance]
Release date:[2023/6/7] Is reading[75]次

On the whole,  short-term fluctuations do not change the trend of economic recovery. We must not only have the confidence to do a good  job in economic work, but also be fully aware of the difficulties and complexities that economic recovery may face,  and remain patient and focused to promote sustained and overall economic improvement.


The purchasing managers' index for manufacturing continued to fall. According to the latest data from the National  Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI fell 0.4 percentage points to 48.8% in May, Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI fell 0.4 percentage points to 48.8% in May, which is larger than the seasonal average,  and has been running below the line of expansion and contraction for two consecutive months. The non-manufacturing PMI  came in at 54.5%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month and down for two consecutive months. As a leading indicator of economic operation,  the fall of PMI indicates that insufficient aggregate demand is still a prominent contradiction facing economic  operation, reflecting the complexity of economic recovery and the urgency of stabilizing domestic demand.


Since the beginning of this year, China's society has fully returned to normal operation,  the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations has been eased,  and economic development has shown a good trend of recovery. However,  as the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee put forward,  "the current improvement of China's economic operation is mainly restorative, the internal impetus is not strong,  and the demand is still insufficient." In May, with the concentrated release of the previous backlog of demand,  the short-term market demand momentum weakened. As can be seen from the PMI data,  the economic recovery has obvious structural differentiation:  the recovery speed of demand lags behind the recovery of supply;  The non-manufacturing sector, especially the service sector, recovered steadily,  but both production and demand in the manufacturing sector slowed down. The PMI of large enterprises rose to the  critical point, and the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises was still weak.


Our country faces a complex and severe environment for development, with periodic,  structural and institutional incongruities coexisting,  and international risks and challenges coexist with domestic difficulties. Internationally,  the prospects for a strong recovery in the global economy remain dim amid high inflation,  rising interest rates and heightened uncertainty. Slowing global growth is also likely to keep external demand under  pressure. On the domestic front, people's income is still expected to recover,  there is great pressure on young people to find jobs,  and the sustainability of the momentum of consumption recovery faces challenges. There are still constraints on  government investment to leverage social investment.


Restoring and expanding demand is the key to a sustained recovery in the current economy. Data show that in May,  the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reflecting the lack of market demand reached 58.8%, hitting the highest value since the survey. The decline in foreign demand accelerated,  and the new export orders index was 47.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Reflecting the lack of market demand, the proportion of non-manufacturing enterprises was 52.6%, ending the trend of four consecutive months of decline, and reaching a new high this year. Macro policies should be more forward-looking, targeted and coordinated,  take comprehensive measures to release the potential of domestic demand,  and promote positive feedback between supply and demand.


Consumption is the ultimate demand and the basic driving force for economic development. We should give priority to  restoring and expanding consumption. We will increase people's income through multiple channels by expanding spending on  public services,  and strive to increase the consumption power of low - and middle-income residents who have a high propensity to consume  but are greatly affected by the epidemic. We will increase consumer credit at an appropriate level,  support consumption of rigid and improved housing and new-energy vehicles,  foster new hotspots of consumption in green consumption, cultural tourism and other services,  and create new consumption scenarios.


The strong driving force and high correlation of investment are of great significance for stabilizing economic  operation, stimulating internal impetus, and promoting transformation and upgrading. To stabilize investment,  the key is to arouse the enthusiasm of private investment,  further improve the policy environment supporting its development,  vigorously and orderly promote the development of 102 major projects and other major economic and social projects,  encourage and attract more private capital to participate in major national projects and projects that strengthen weak  links in accordance with market principles, and stimulate the vitality of private investment


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